Nick Fisher

A Bayesian Practioner

A Bayesian Practioner

As a quick follow up to our quarterly newsletter, I thought I would take the opportunity to update you on our investment thoughts in light of what appears to be a regime change in monetary policy expectations. To recap, we said that:

  1. We expected inflation to become more of a concern than it has been in the recent past given the coordinated global growth we have seen.
  2. Given the “goldilocks scenario” of ideal investment conditions, investors were bound to be surprised by a change in inflation expectations and potentially monetary policy.
  3. All assets are priced from US short-term T-bills (we call this the “risk-free” rate). If these rates move up rapidly, asset prices may come under pressure. This pressure is further magnified by the fact that valuations are extremely high.

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Beneath a Calm Surface, Change is Brewing

Beneath a Calm Surface, Change is Brewing

Global coordinated growth seems to be back and stock markets are up. This is in line with what we have expected. As discussed in last quarter’s letter, we expected the majority of returns to come from international and emerging markets and that has definitely been the case. Of course we will see volatility in the markets, so we must be prepared. With all of this growth, interest rate normalization is at the forefront of our minds.

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Proceed With Caution...Don't Try to Pick The Top

Proceed With Caution...Don't Try to Pick The Top

As the current bull market continues, more investors are starting to predict the day it all comes to an end. Instead of trying to predict a market top, according to Mark Hulbert (of Marketwatch), investors should view market tops as a “gradual process in which equity exposure is slowly and deliberately reduced over time.” Predicting tops is not only unproductive, but it is also impossible to be accurate. Trying to pinpoint the precise date of a market top cannot be done because markets all reach their tops at different times. 

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Venture Backed Unicorns May Be As Much As 50% Overvalued

Venture Backed Unicorns May Be As Much As 50% Overvalued

Venture capital has become an important driver of the economy and investment returns for many institutions. Even mutual funds have joined the party with the likes of Fidelity and T. Rowe Price having acquired the shares of pre-IPO companies in the private market within their mutual fund products. Now we are finding that these highly valued, venture backed companies may be as much as 50% overvalued.

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Q2 Commentary: Going Overseas and Why Active Management Isn't Dead

Q2 Commentary: Going Overseas and Why Active Management Isn't Dead

I recently read the autobiography of Sam Zell, an extremely successful real estate investor known for his uncanny ability to buy low and sell high. In the book he tells the story of his father’s foresight and decisive action that preserved his family in Pre-world-war-2 Poland. As a successful grain merchant, his father kept apprised of political and social happenings in Europe through his extensive travel and interest in short wave radio. While some people looked at this “hobby” of international politics as a complete waste of time, it gave his father a unique outlook on the world. With this perspective, coupled with decisive action, the Zell’s were able to start a successful new life in the United States.

Q2 Commentary: How to Manage a Sideways Market

Q2 Commentary: How to Manage a Sideways Market

A sideways moving market, as we have seen recently, requires a different mindset to navigate. Indeed global developed markets have been flat for a couple years now, emerging markets have been flat for 10 years, and US Small Cap stocks have had zero return since late 2013. Most Wall Street sources have described it as, “The most hated bull market ever.” The following charts have us asking ourselves, is it possible the bull market ended and no one noticed yet?

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To Attend the Party Or Not

To Attend the Party Or Not

We just finished hosting a few open houses for friends of the firm, and whether it was one too many glasses of wine or the volatility we saw in the first quarter, I think we stumbled on an interesting topic. Truth be told, we are a little late publishing this newsletter. In spite of some volatility in the first two months of the year, not much has changed. Thus, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, we wanted to revisit a discussion (reference the earlier newsletter) regarding the emotion investors experience during market volatility.

We Already Wrote This Commentary

We Already Wrote This Commentary

As of this writing at the end of January 2016, the markets have been quite volatile. We have had a few conversations over the last couple years with clients wondering why we were so conservative. A few actually pointed to other investors who were earning a more substantial return, while their returns were more subdued. It is amazing how quickly the narrative in the market has changed from momentum-based risk taking to capital preservation.

2014 Q3 Commentary: Heads We Win, Tails We Don't Lose Much

2014 Q3 Commentary: Heads We Win, Tails We Don't Lose Much

With major stock market averages in the midst of a pullback, I thought it would be interesting to review the risks we have seen in the markets. As of this writing the S&P 500 dropped below its 200 day moving average for the first time in 477 days (third longest streak in history). Small cap stocks have been especially susceptible (down 13%+ on a price basis since end of June). This pullback is no coincidence, the stock markets domestically and internationally have benefitted from the global experiment of Quantitative Easing. Indeed the correlation of increasing stock prices in the midst of each round of quantitative easing is unmistakable. Likewise, the subsequent fall of stock prices, as each round has ended is distinct. Therefore, with the end of QE3+ on the horizon, there is no wonder that stock prices are under pressure.

2014 Q2 Commentary: Everything Changes ... Eventually

2014 Q2 Commentary: Everything Changes ... Eventually

As recently as 10 million years ago, the Amazon river actually flowed east to west. At the base of the northern Andes, it formed a large lake that eventually flowed into the Caribbean Sea. Over time, it reversed course as the continent tilted and sediment built up. If the largest river on the planet can change directions - couldn’t the stock market?

2014 Q1 Commentary: A Bird in the Hand is Worth...

2014 Q1 Commentary: A Bird in the Hand is Worth...

We have written in last quarter’s report that we should expect lower annual market returns than what were achieved in the previous 4 years. The reason for this has less to do with a change in the vigor, (or lack thereof) with which our economy grows and more to do with the price paid for assets in today’s environment. To explain let’s first review the rationale of any capital allocation decision and finish with discussing the significance of volatility and the need for unconventional thinking. The basis of any capital allocation decision has not changed since Aesop’s truism in 600 B.C., “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.” Warren Buffett, in his letter to shareholders in 2000, added three questions to this enduring axiom: 1) How certain are you that there are indeed birds in the bush? 2) When will they emerge and how many will there be? 3) What is the risk-free interest rate [how would your bird in hand grow without taking any risk]? Of course, in Buffett’s example birds are dollars and a bush is any capital outlay or investment. If you can answer these three questions with certainty, than you will know the maximum value of the bush (investment) and the maximum number of birds (dollars) that should be offered for it.

2013 Q4 Commentary: Investing in Uncharted Territory

2013 Q4 Commentary: Investing in Uncharted Territory
“The less prudence with which others conduct their affairs, the more prudence we must use in conducting our own.”

 

-- Howard Marks’ favorite quote

As a portfolio manager, I have two jobs: 1) Define the playing field by understanding risk and 2) Once the playing field is defined, invest in opportunities that offer our clients the best risk adjusted return in order to achieve their goals. Last quarter we discussed our probabilistic approach in defining the playing field and understanding the dynamic of the risk/return tradeoff. This quarter I will update you on our thoughts on risk and share some thoughts on portfolio construction in light of these risks and uncertainty.

Is Your Business Currently Worthy of Your Investment?

An annual ritual in corporate America happens each year when leaders of publicly traded companies summarize their reflections on the prior year, and outline plans for the coming year. Preceding the annual report, their letter is published for current and would be shareholders to review, and subsequently judge the merits of owning shares in the company. What if you had to write a letter to shareholders discussing the merits of owning shares in your business? Doing so may be the MOST important thing you do for your business in 2014.

On a basic level, a letter should include the following:

  1. Remind shareholders why you exist

  2. Review the strategy for the last 5 yrs

  3. Explain & Reconcile the key outcomes

  4. Outline the strategy for the next 5 yrs

The process begins with self-awareness. It may be the most critical component in understanding where you are, and therefore where you are going. I am reminded of a current client who had a "successful" distribution business. The only problem was that he didn't seem to be making progress. He considered hiring a CFO to help understand what was going on financially. He agreed instead to a facilitated assessment in which we engaged in a critical look at both his and the businesses short-comings. The assessment revealed not only a lack of financial awareness but also a lack of understanding of who controlled the value chain within his industry. As a result, he initiated a multi-year strategy focusing on how to leverage his strengths in these areas. The outcome of this strategy will nearly double his profit margins, and secure his long-term sustainability. His strategy included: a) proactively managing and gaining more control over his supply-chain, b) recapitalizing his company to reduce the risk of an economic downturn, while becoming less dependent on debt financing and c) focusing on his most important financial metrics, rather than the "cool" projects to promote his company.

A long-term view is significant as it is too easy to focus on the short-term, while sacrificing long-term sustainability and investment in the future. Most small and middle market companies have thought very little about their strategy. Most are opportunists, where they see a customer need and attempt to meet that need, taking on projects to build systems around their product or service. While this is how most companies are created, a more intentional and sophisticated strategy is critical to building a sustainable and valuable company. Consider IBM's strategy from their 2012 Letter to Shareholders:

IBM's Model: Continuous Transformation

In an industry characterized by a relentless cycle of innovation and commoditization, one model for success is that of the commodity player - winning through low price, efficiency and economies of scale. Ours is a different choice: the path of innovation, reinvention and shift to higher value.

If you understand your industry, your company's current position and resources, then you can plot a course going forward. In IBM's case, they have elected to deemphasize slow growing, low margin business sectors, like their hardware business which was formerly a huge component of their total business. Instead, IBM chooses to focus on the higher growth and higher margin business segments. An objective look at your business is critical. Often times a board of advisors, mentors and/or outside consultants can assist best with this assessment.

Understanding what outcomes to measure is vital. In our view there are three key attributes and outcomes that make a great company:

Screen Shot 2013-12-30 at 11.01.36 AM

Screen Shot 2013-12-30 at 11.01.36 AM

The process of constructing a letter to your shareholders can be a very useful exercise. A well crafted letter should include a summary of all the information needed to evaluate the investment in a business. It should allow an outsider to determine the value of your business. If you cannot articulate this, your business may not be worthy of investment. Remember, we are investing considerable time and money in our businesses on a daily basis. Is your business worthy of this investment? Whether or not you intend sell your stake in your business or use it as a tool to build wealth, answering this question on an annual basis is imperative to reaching your goals.

2013 Q3 Commentary: Know Your Limits, It May Be Time To Sober Up

2013 Q3 Commentary: Know Your Limits, It May Be Time To Sober Up

One of the first investing lessons I learned was, not to lose money. Not only is it mathematically a problem, as losing 50% means you must gain 100% to return to even, but it has lasting psychological impact that can cause all sorts of opportunities for misjudgment: pervasive fear that leads to selling at the wrong time, a reluctance to buy at the right time, or buy enough, just to name a few. It is nearly impossible to foretell how we will react, therefore if one is interested in earning a respectable return (greater than the risk free return of short-tem treasuries) we must develop what Howard Marks describes as, “risk Intelligence.” It’s the investors’ job to understand, recognize and control risk. I frequently revisit informative writings in order to ensure that the compass needle is pointing in the right direction. This letter was inspired by an article that Howard Marks wrote some time ago, Risk and Return Today.

“The Fed has spiked the punch bowl. You can get drunk on easy credit and once you do you start doing things drunk people do. We’re not there yet, but we’re a little tipsy. People should start thinking about not driving.” – Howard Marks

2013 Q2 Market Commentary

2013 Q2 Market Commentary

Having a small farm outside Sherwood and being someone interested in cultivating my green thumb, we planted a few pinot noir vines last year.

In the vineyard, vintners are often at the mercy of the climate and weather. The delicate, thin skinned, Pinot Noir grape, for example, needs a minimum number of growing degree days, but not too much, as raisins make for poor quality wine.

Both the climate (i.e., location of the vineyard), but also the weather in an individual vineyard, are crucial. So it is with investments.

2013 Q1 Market Commentary

2013 Q1 Market Commentary

The double digit stock market returns we experienced in the first quarter should give us a reason to pause. Being 48 months removed from the financial crisis, we feel investors have developed unrealistic expectations for future returns, which will ultimately lead to disappointment. Given the prospects for future gains, we should expect that dividends will make up more than 50% of domestic stock market returns over the next 10 years. Meanwhile, bonds are underappreciated by investors. This is due to the expectation of rising interest rates. In our view, investors have forgotten the benefits of the liquidity and diversification that bonds offer. Lastly, as has occurred in Cyprus recently, when small and largely inconsequential events occur to the detriment of a few, it should serve as a sober reminder of the risks we regularly face as investors, especially when risks are largely ignored.

Note from Co-Founder & Portfolio Manager

Note from Co-Founder &  Portfolio Manager

Living outside the hustle and bustle of the city on a small farm has its advantages. Besides making it easier to tire our two active young boys, we are also fortunate enough to have the space to grow plenty of fruits and vegetables to cook with and eat. Farming opens up a whole new world of learning, which is truly my favorite pastime.It is also far removed from the temptations and new trends of Wall Street, an absolute imperative for an independent advisor.